May 24th, 2008 by
reality
I’ve added David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital to my list of plain speakers. To see why, read these pieces (PDFs) - “Accounting Ingenuity” and “Private Profits and Socialized Risk“. Thanks to Mr. Mortgage for hosting them. In addition to the crooks he takes on, read and heed the comments about the SEC, which has pursued Mr Einhorn for his negative remarks. As I have mentioned before, if you are an investor, the SEC is your enemy. It is the industry’s “enforcer”, threatening and pursuing anyone who attacks the securities industry, or does anything the industry does not like, while defending the industry from any attempts at regulation.
Also, an update from Marc Faber (video). Synchronized global bust.
Oh, and Hillary? Don’t call your shots.
Posted in David Einhorn, Government, Marc Faber, Rogues and Rascals |
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July 31st, 2007 by
reality
From the curmudgeon department: “July 31 (Bloomberg) — Jeremy Grantham, the money manager who oversees $150 billion as chairman of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. LLC, said a credit crisis may force as many as half of hedge funds worldwide to close in the next five years.
The loss of investors’ appetite for risk also may cause at least one global bank and `one or two’ of the largest private- equity firms to go out of business, Grantham, known for his pessimistic outlook, said in a July 30 interview from his Boston office. The 68-year-old investor said he’s still bullish on emerging-markets stocks.”
While we’re on the subject of curmudgeons (takes one to know one), at Financial Times Alphaville: Marc Faber discusses Hindenburgs and the technical condition of the market. Hint: Not bullish.
And of course, you’ve been taking your weekly dose of Hussman, haven’t you?: “One of the best indications of the speculative willingness of investors is the “uniformity†of positive market action across a broad range of internals. Probably the most important aspect of last week’s decline was the decisive negative shift in these measures.”
Posted in Bill Gross, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, Marc Faber |
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July 27th, 2007 by
reality
Strong words from senior bankers about the collapse of credit markets around the world. Take them seriously, and literally. These folks do not fool around, this is not Cramer and Kudlow.
“The big risk in the coming weeks and months is that you get forced selling of credit with institutions, both from the hedge fund side and the bank side,” said Bob Janjuah, chief credit strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. “The global economy is a debt-fueled confidence based scheme. All assets are and will be impacted.”
“This is not going to be a short affair,” said V. Anantha-Nageswaran, head of research for Asia at Bank Julius Baer (Singapore) Ltd., part of Switzerland’s biggest independent money manager. “By the time it ends, in three to four years, people will not want to hear of financial markets or real estate.”
Marc Faber chimes in: “The LBO bubble has dispersed. The peak of the LBO boom has been reached. It was long overdue that the market would go down.”
Posted in Fixed Income, Marc Faber, Stocks |
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May 16th, 2007 by
reality
Well, obviously not. But we are in 1929. A rapidly weakening economy and a partying stock market, driven by massive speculation. Do we have to wait until the fall for the classic October panic? Could be…
But maybe not. Just remember, that the smart trader and investor leaves the last dollar on the table for the other guy to reach for.
I understand that Marc Faber released today an unusual second commentary for the month, that ended with: “Therefore, I believe that all stock markets will shortly undergo a substantial correction or a crash during which US stocks and the US dollar could offer some relative out-performance. My favorite investment currently is to park some money in two years US Treasury Notes and to avoid all equity markets.”
Posted in Marc Faber, Strategy & Scenarios |
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January 14th, 2006 by
InLibrisLibertas
Marc Faber: A year ago, the consensus about the dollar was extremely bearish. I said the dollar would go up. Once in awhile, you can be lucky. [The U.S. Dollar index was up 12.6% last year.] The situation at the end of 2005 was the opposite. Speculative long positions were at a low extreme, and speculative short positions, especially in the yen and euro, were at historic highs. The surprise for 2006 is the dollar will resume its downtrend.
In the last 10 days the Asian currencies have been strong. I’m still recommending Asian assets, including currencies. If the Dow Jones industrials and the U.S. housing market drop 10% one day, I have no doubt Mr. Bernanke [incoming Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke] will print money like water. Also, since 2000, U.S. financial assets have weakened vis-Ã -vis gold and silver. In 2000 you needed 45 ounces of gold to buy one unit of the Dow. Now you need only 20 ounces. If the Dow goes to 100,000, as the bulls wrote in those wonderful books in the late 1990s, you’ll probably be able to buy it with half an ounce of gold. It won’t happen this year. It will take a few years until gold is $200,000 an ounce.
Posted in Marc Faber |
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