August 2nd, 2008 by 
reality
I’m flat on the month because the markets are basically flat on the month. Not complicated. But soon we get to see whether or not the analyst forecasts for big earnings growth in the third and fourth quarters hold. Fat chance. Ninnies. More bear action to come, IMO.
| Measure |
July |
YTD |
Inception |
| Absolute Performance |
(0.85)% |
9.71% |
(0.31)% |
| Relative Performance |
4.35% |
33.8% |
(7.65)% |
Relative performance is based on Fidelity Magellan, FMAGX. Inception refers to reporting on the blog, and is based on the close of 2005.
7/31 portfolio.
| Asset class |
% Allocated |
Comment |
| Energy |
0 |
|
| Absolute Return Funds |
0 |
|
| Market Timing - Bear |
5.06 |
Inverse funds and put options equiv. to 150-200% short (basis total equity). |
| Market Timing - Bull |
7.87 |
Just a temporary flutter on the dark side |
| Metals & Mining |
0 |
|
| Real Estate |
0 |
|
| Tech |
0 |
|
| Fixed Income |
55.3 |
Mostly T-bills, and a small long bond position. About half of this is in Canadian T-bills. Still in WHOSX. |
| Cash |
31.7 |
And that means cash, essentially all FDIC-insured, not money market. |
Posted in * Portfolio changes, Asset Classes, Strategy & Scenarios | 
3 Comments »
July 1st, 2008 by reality
I’m underperforming on the sell-off because I have chosen to position most of my bear puts in the NDX, Nasdaq 100, which appears to be the last refuge of the bulls and is still a long way from its March lows, unlike the Dow and the S&P. While that’s a little frustrating, I’m not concerned because these GOOGs, RIMMs and so forth are the most overpriced stocks around and will have their day in the barrel.
| Measure |
June |
YTD |
Inception |
| Absolute Performance |
4.90% |
10.56% |
0.54% |
| Relative Performance |
15.1% |
29.5% |
(12.0)% |
Relative performance is based on Fidelity Magellan, FMAGX. Inception refers to reporting on the blog, and is based on the close of 2005.
6/30 portfolio.
| Asset class |
% Allocated |
Comment |
| Energy |
0 |
The covered calls on DUG worked just fine, but I let them run out on the June expiration |
| Absolute Return Funds |
0 |
|
| Market Timing - Bear |
19.9 |
Inverse funds and put options equiv. to 150-200% short (basis total equity). |
| Market Timing - Bull |
0 |
|
| Metals & Mining |
0 |
|
| Real Estate |
0 |
|
| Tech |
0 |
|
| Fixed Income |
53.9 |
Mostly T-bills, and a small long bond position. About half of this is in Canadian T-bills. Still in WHOSX. Closed out HSTRX |
| Cash |
26.2 |
And that means cash, mostly FDIC-insured, not money market. |
Posted in * Portfolio changes, Asset Classes, Strategy & Scenarios | 4 Comments »
June 8th, 2008 by reality
Still not brave enough to be long. So I get punished. Well, I’ve promised myself to do better on the next swing down. Of course, that will be when I miss the crash, for sure. But posting these is a sophisticated form of self-flagellation and a reminder that I need to manage my bearishness better. Also stay home.
| Measure |
Apr/May |
YTD |
Inception |
| Absolute Performance |
(18.4)% |
4.85% |
(4.05)% |
| Relative Performance |
(29.8)% |
9.6% |
(22.2)% |
Relative performance is based on Fidelity Magellan, FMAGX. Inception refers to reporting on the blog, and is based on the close of 2005.
5/31 portfolio.
| Asset class |
% Allocated |
Comment |
| Energy |
11.9 |
Writing (covered) calls on DUG |
| Absolute Return Funds |
0 |
|
| Market Timing - Bear |
9.3 |
Inverse funds and put options equiv. to 150-200% short (basis total equity). |
| Market Timing - Bull |
0 |
|
| Metals & Mining |
0 |
|
| Real Estate |
0 |
|
| Tech |
0 |
|
| Fixed Income |
74.0 |
Mostly T-bills, and a small long bond position. About half of this is in Canadian T-bills. Still in WHOSX and HSTRX. |
| Cash |
4.7 |
And that means cash, mostly FDIC-insured, not money market. |
Posted in * Portfolio changes, Asset Classes, Strategy & Scenarios | 2 Comments »
April 1st, 2008 by reality
Every time I go travelling I lose money. I don’t know if it is coincidence or just that I’m not paying attention. But it seems consistent. I know the answer, don’t do that. Well, not so easy, what’s it all about, anyway? Bottom line is, I got too enthusiastic on the short side and was duly punished. A learning experience. The problem is, I’m too afraid of missing a crash so I leave my shorts in place too long. So I’m now using OTM puts to be “crash catchers” and that frees me to take the rich ones off the table. Assuming there are any, that is. After a few days like today that’ll be moot.
| Measure |
Feb/Mar |
YTD |
Inception |
| Absolute Performance |
(3.8)% |
22.7% |
13.6% |
| Relative Performance |
0.8% |
42.3% |
2.3% |
Relative performance is based on Fidelity Magellan, FMAGX. Inception refers to reporting on the blog, and is based on the close of 2005.
3/31 portfolio.
| Asset class |
% Allocated |
Comment |
| Energy |
0 |
|
| Absolute Return Funds |
0 |
|
| Market Timing - Bear |
22.03 |
Inverse funds and put options equiv. to 150-200% short (basis total equity). But there’s lots of gamma. I did add some more bear funds, notably SRS. |
| Market Timing - Bull |
0 |
|
| Metals & Mining |
0 |
|
| Real Estate |
0 |
|
| Tech |
0 |
|
| Fixed Income |
72.63 |
Mostly T-bills, and a small long bond position. About half of this is in Canadian T-bills. Moved back into WHOSX, although kept the HSTRX. Switched into BEGBX rather than FXA. |
| Cash |
5.34 |
And that means cash, mostly FDIC-insured, not money market. |
Posted in * Portfolio changes, Asset Classes, Strategy & Scenarios | 2 Comments »
February 1st, 2008 by reality
The third time down finally arrived and patience was rewarded. The NDX fell 9% in January. I took a fair amount off the table near the lows, by rolling down the puts, and am currently rebuilding the short position by rolling them back up again as the market becomes overbought. Manipulation has become increasingly blatant as the boyz figure they’re as well hung for a sheep as a goat, and besides the chances of the SEC caring are somewhere between slim and none. However, the Minsky moment has clearly passed and the collapse of the credit bubble is underway. That the stock market is as high as it is (Dow 12,700, more or less), is a bad joke. Patience, grasshopper.
| Measure |
January |
YTD |
Inception |
| Absolute Performance |
28.4% |
28.4% |
18.0% |
| Relative Performance |
41.2% |
41.2% |
1.5% |
Relative performance is based on Fidelity Magellan, FMAGX. Now “open” again, if anyone cares. Inception refers to reporting on the blog, and is based on the close of 2005.
1/31 portfolio.
| Asset class |
% Allocated |
Comment |
| Energy |
0 |
|
| Absolute Return Funds |
0 |
|
| Market Timing - Bear |
17.76 |
Inverse funds and put options equiv. to 150-200% short (basis total equity). But there’s lots of gamma. |
| Market Timing - Bull |
0 |
|
| Metals & Mining |
0 |
|
| Real Estate |
0 |
|
| Tech |
0 |
|
| Fixed Income |
74.35 |
Mostly T-bills, and a small long bond position. Moved out of WHOSX into HSTRX. About half of this is in Canadian T-bills, also sold the 2-years and added some FXA (Australian dollars), yields 6%. |
| Cash |
7.89 |
And that means cash, not money market. |
Edit: At the request of the boss, “Since inception” has been added to keep things in perspective.
Posted in * Portfolio changes, Asset Classes, Strategy & Scenarios | 2 Comments »
