Worm Turning?
February 4th, 2010 by 
reality
Looks like the worm may be turning as it is becoming ever clearer that the economy continues to deteriorate, despit the continued administration of Keynesian punishment. Richard Russell, the doyen of newsletter writers, is apparently now calling for Dow 1,000. I confess that even out-bears me. Or would that be bears me out? Better than being carried out. Or would that be borne out? Sorry. Got carried away.
Commodities taking some serious punishment, although on the heels of a nasty short squeeze. Hopefully will have better numbers to report next month.
| Measure | January | YTD | Inception | Annualized |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Performance | (1.5)% | (1.5)% | 27.0% | 6.2% |
| Relative Performance (vs. FMAGX) | 1.7% | 1.7% | 44.5% | 9.6% |
| Relative Performance (vs. HSGFX) | (1.6)% | (1.6)% | 24.7% | 5.7% |
| Relative Performance (vs. Fed) | N/A | (1.5)% | 15.7% | 3.7% |
Relative performance is based on a relative return fund, FMAGX, an absolute return fund, HSGFX, and, newly added, “the Fed,” CPI-U price inflation as driven by public enemy number one, the Federal Reserve. Inception refers to reporting on the blog, and is based on the close of 2005.
1/31 portfolio.
| Asset class | % Allocated | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Food & Agriculture | 0 | |
| Energy | 0 | |
| Financial Services Shares | 1.6 | FAZ calls (a bearish position), FAZ |
| Market Timing – Bear | 9.5 | TZA calls, SDS |
| Market Timing – Bull | 0.8 | |
| Metals & Mining | 0 | |
| Infrastructure | 0 | |
| Fixed Income & Currency | 74.2 | TLT, WHOSX, Canada 5.75s of 2029 |
| Cash | 13.8 | Cash, essentially all FDIC-insured. |
Posted in * Portfolio changes, Asset Classes, Strategy & Scenarios | 
3 Comments »
February 4th, 2010 at 1:56 pm
I think you find it overbearing?
February 4th, 2010 at 2:06 pm
Realty,
Yes, it does look like the worm is turning. There is no one to bailout the sovereigns. Assuming this gets legs, we should see an unwind of the dollar carry/short into commodities trade. But then the dollar will be dumped as well and I think Mises will come into the picture. I just hope this stays limited to currency destruction.
February 4th, 2010 at 6:33 pm
unbearable, calf