Bubbleheads
reality
From the TARP Special Inspector General, Neil M. Barofsky’s report to Congress:
- To the extent that huge, interconnected, “too big to fail” institutions contributed to the crisis, those institutions are now even larger, in part because of the substantial subsidies provided by TARP and other bailout programs.
- To the extent that institutions were previously incentivized to take reckless risks through a “heads, I win; tails, the Government will bail me out” mentality, the market is more convinced than ever that the Government will step in as necessary to save systemically significant institutions. This perception was reinforced when TARP was extended until October 3, 2010, thus permitting Treasury to maintain a war chest of potential rescue funding at the same time that banks that have shown questionable ability to return to profitability (and in some cases are posting multi-billion-dollar losses) are exiting TARP programs.
- To the extent that large institutions’ risky behavior resulted from the desire to justify ever-greater bonuses — and indeed, the race appears to be on for TARP recipients to exit the program in order to avoid its pay restrictions — the current bonus season demonstrates that although there have been some improvements in the form that bonus compensation takes for some executives, there has been little fundamental change in the excessive compensation culture on Wall Street.
- To the extent that the crisis was fueled by a “bubble” in the housing market, the Federal Government’s concerted efforts to support home prices — as discussed more fully in Section 3 of this report — risk re-inflating that bubble in light of the Government’s effective takeover of the housing market through purchases and guarantees, either direct or implicit, of nearly all of the residential mortgage market.
The watchdog does not seem to grasp that the whole point is to re-inflate the housing bubble. The administration appears to believe that the housing bubble collapsed as a result of poor regulation. Given that neo-classical economics does not account for debt, there can be no other explanation within the framework of received wisdom. And the idea that the framework may be fundamentally broken does not seem to cross anyone’s mind.
Posted in Economics, Fixed Income, Government, Manias, Real Estate, Rogues and Rascals, Strategy & Scenarios, The Fed, The Fisc |
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