financial reality

Separating fact from fiction in finance and economics


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  • InLibrisLibertas
    Location : Mill Valley, California, United States

    I'm an independent investor. I make my living from the returns on my investments. I work at home, in the northern part of the San Francisco Bay area. I spent most of my career as an executive in high-tech, although I also spent time in banking. Down to one kid in university now!

Of Academic Interest

October 31st, 2009 by reality

The chairman of the Department of Economics at George Mason University notes that it is semantically incorrect to refer to politicians as “whores” or “prostitutes.”

So to call politicians “whores” is to unduly insult women who either choose or who are forced into the profession of prostitution. These women aggress against no one; like all other respectable human beings, they do their best to get by as well as they can without violating other people’s rights.

The real villains in the prostitution arena are those pimps who coerce women into satisfying the lusts of strangers. Such pimps pocket most of the gains earned by the toil and risks involuntarily imposed upon the prostitutes they control. No one thinks this arrangement is fair or justified. No one gives pimps the title of “Honorable.” Decent people don’t care what pimps think or suppose that pimps have any special insights into what is good or bad for the women under their command. Decent people don’t pretend that pimps act chiefly for the benefit of their prostitutes. Decent people believe that pimps should be in prison.

Yet Americans continue to imagine that the typical representative or senator is an upstanding citizen, a human being worthy of being feted and listened to as if he or she possesses some unusually high moral or intellectual stature.

It’s closer to the truth to see politicians as pimps who force ordinary men and women to pony up freedoms and assets for the benefit of clients we call “special-interest groups.”

I can only agree.

Posted in Government, Rogues and Rascals | No Comments »

It’s About The Jobs, Stupid

October 30th, 2009 by reality

While Mr Obama takes a victory lap of the Oval Office, claiming that he has vanquished the recession, many Americans remain jobless. A successful (and temporary) manipulation of GDP with “stimulus” spending misses the point. Which is that years of manipulation have led to malinvestment, not just in real estate, but in skills for which there is no further demand. Talk of a “jobless recovery” is ridiculous – a “jobless recovery” is no recovery at all. It is just an attempt to cover up the problem with misleading statistics. The direct effect of high unemployment is human suffering. The side effects of widespread unemployment include loan defaults, not only on residential properties, but also on empty offices,  and deserted shopping centers.

The monetary and fiscal manipulators caused this problem, by encouraging speculative building over and above real demand, while simultaneously destroying the industrial base. Now they are trying to defer the consequences by applying more of the same toxic medicine. All they are doing is aggravating the problem. Perhaps today’s selling is telling us that people are starting to realize this. Mr Obama is setting records for the number of rounds of golf played and the number of speeches made by a President. Perhaps he needs to look at his priorities. I predicted long ago that he would be a one-term President. I stand by that prediction, unless he takes Mr Clinton’s reminder to heart.

Posted in Asset Classes, Debt, Employment, Government, Manias, Real Estate, Stocks, Strategy & Scenarios, The Fed, The Fisc | No Comments »

GDP Circus Coming To Town

October 28th, 2009 by reality

I’m looking forward to seeing the response to tomorrow’s GDP report. It seems pretty much in the bag that it will be positive because Goldman has already announced a +2.7% Q/Q number, and they get the pre-release fax. Anyway, that’s in the market. Presumably.

But I think anyone with half a brain knows that it is a bogus number, the result of pulled forward demand – Cash for Clunkers, the housing tax credit and heaven knows what else – and not sustainable. So I’m guessing the number will “beat by a penny” – that would be +2.8%, all the shills will promptly declare that the recession is over, all hail Ben, nothing but blue skies ahead, &c.,&c. There’ll be a knee jerk rally, to clear out the shorts, and then it will get interesting.

I’m clutching a fistful of lottery tickets, moi. I think a strong GDP number will cause the dollar to rally (because it will foreshadow an end to QE) and that will tank the stock market. We’ll see.

Posted in Government, Income & Consumption, Stocks, Strategy & Scenarios, The Economy | 2 Comments »

Stop Digging!

October 27th, 2009 by reality

Apparently the tax credit for buying a house will be expanded to so-called “move-up” buyers. And billions more will be injected into GMAC – all good money after bad. And so on. And on and on.

These people are insane with fear. They will do anything that they think will placate angry and frustrated voters. And in doing so they are hammering nails into the coffin of the U.S. economy. They have forgotten the first rule – if you find yourself getting deeper in a hole, stop digging!

Posted in Debt, Fixed Income, Government, Income & Consumption, Real Estate, Rogues and Rascals, Strategy & Scenarios, The Economy, The Fisc | No Comments »

Vote Of Non Confidence

October 27th, 2009 by reality

The consumer confidence report this morning at 47.7, down from 53.4 last month and a big miss of the expected reading of 53.1, shows that people are beginning to see through the administration’s Potemkin village of bogus statistics. They know that manipulating GDP doesn’t bring back jobs. They see rising commodity prices, falling wages and rising unemployment. In addition to the economic realities, I also think that people are rapidly losing confidence in President Obama. No surprise, as the wave of euphoria that swept him into office has turned into a more sober realization that he is just another glib politician, putting the interests of the political class ahead of the interests of the country and its citizens. Personally I found the recent spectacle of President Obama traipsing around the country (in Air Force One, on my dime) with his hand out for contributions demeaning and repellent.

Edit: What you get for your money. This used to be called influence-peddling. Now it is just political business as usual.

During his first nine months in office, President Obama has quietly rewarded scores of top Democratic donors with VIP access to the White House, private briefings with administration advisers and invitations to important speeches and town-hall meetings.

High-dollar fundraisers have been promised access to senior White House officials in exchange for pledges to donate $30,400 personally or to bundle $300,000 in contributions ahead of the 2010 midterm elections, according to internal Democratic National Committee documents obtained by The Washington Times.

I guess no-one except me finds it strange that you can buy your way into the White House.

Posted in Commodities, Employment, Government, Income & Consumption, Rogues and Rascals, Strategy & Scenarios, The Economy | No Comments »

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