financial reality

Separating fact from fiction in finance and economics


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  • InLibrisLibertas
    Location : Mill Valley, California, United States

    I'm an independent investor. I make my living from the returns on my investments. I work at home, in the northern part of the San Francisco Bay area. I spent most of my career as an executive in high-tech, although I also spent time in banking. Down to one kid in university now!

The Smartest Man

October 25th, 2008 by reality

Well, right now, anyway. That crown tends to, shall we say, move around. “Uneasy lies the head that wears a crown” (Henry IV part 2, William Shakespeare).

The Smartest Man We Know has heard the slurs. When you make your living on Wall Street, yet hold the opinion that Wall Street is populated by incompetent fools, you’re not going to win a lot of friends at dinner parties, are you?

And when you bet millions that the American financial system is going to fall apart, that its economy will be seized with fear - and when you were doing this and saying this before there was any hint of real trouble - well, you couldn’t really expect other people to welcome the message, could you?

Been there, done that. And no, the message was not welcome outside the huddled communities of bears hanging out in chat rooms here and there. I learnt to keep my mouth shut and only provide my opinion to friends. And of course anyone who happened across my blog. Not that I expected anyone would, it is and always has been more of a personal chronicle, although I have found encouragement in readers’ comments and feedback.

You buy Canada, says Mr. Narayanan, who can’t believe the way the loonie has been savaged. “The currency is ridiculously undervalued. I can’t think of any country in the world that has no fiscal deficit, no trade deficit and no inflation - except Canada. I think the Canadian dollar should go through parity.

“I like the whole Canadian market. I don’t particularly dig the banks because I just don’t know what’s in there [on the balance sheet]. But I’d say virtually everything else is fine.”

I hope he’s right. Not only because I own a bunch of energy trusts now, but the drop in the Canadian dollar is putting a world of hurt on my Canadian fixed income position. I’m not worried from a long term point of view, besides, when you’ve seen 0.62, 0.78 looks pretty good.

Posted in Energy, International, Stocks, Strategy & Scenarios |

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