Better
October 2nd, 2008 by 
reality
The short side paid in September. Rather nicely, as a matter of fact. This time I hope to do a better job of hanging on to the gains. Of course, we’ll see.
| Measure | September | YTD | Inception |
|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Performance | 27.1% | 34.0% | 19.9% |
| Relative Performance | 52.8% | 94.7% | 37.9% |
Relative performance is based on Fidelity Magellan, FMAGX. Inception refers to reporting on the blog, and is based on the close of 2005.
9/30 portfolio.
| Asset class | % Allocated | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 0 | |
| Absolute Return Funds | 0 | |
| Market Timing - Bear | 12.6 | Inverse funds and put options equiv. to 150-200% short (basis total equity). |
| Market Timing - Bull | 0 | |
| Metals & Mining | 0 | |
| Real Estate | 0 | |
| Tech | 0 | |
| Fixed Income | 27.1 | Mostly T-bills, and a small long bond position. Most of this is in Canadian T-bills. |
| Cash | 60.3 | And that means cash, essentially all FDIC-insured, not money market. |
Posted in * Portfolio changes, Asset Classes, Retirement, Strategy & Scenarios | 
October 2nd, 2008 at 5:09 pm
Congrats. 34% YTD on your portfolio is definitely in the top .1% of all investors this year. I’m envious.
You mention “hanging on to the gains”. That’s my biggest challenge. Knowing when to hold or when to sell. I tend to get out too soon.
Best thing I’ve found is in the “Demons of our own design” book - Coarse behavior…ie, KIS. Sell high, buy low. Don’t try to over analyze it.
The gov’t has many more bullets in their gun. Rate cuts, printing money, raising taxes, outlaw selling (short or not) to try and push the mkt up - especially close to an election.
I’ve also evolved to using 2x leveraged bets/investments/trades when the indicies are within 25% of the 200 day moving avg. When things get really out of whack (> 30%), buy puts/calls. We are getting close to this point.
Best of luck in Oct.
October 4th, 2008 at 8:57 am
27% in a months - congratulations.
October 4th, 2008 at 10:05 am
In a bull market, the bulls are right. In a bear market, the bears are right.