Flat Flat Flat
August 2nd, 2008 by 
reality
I’m flat on the month because the markets are basically flat on the month. Not complicated. But soon we get to see whether or not the analyst forecasts for big earnings growth in the third and fourth quarters hold. Fat chance. Ninnies. More bear action to come, IMO.
| Measure | July | YTD | Inception |
|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Performance | (0.85)% | 9.71% | (0.31)% |
| Relative Performance | 4.35% | 33.8% | (7.65)% |
Relative performance is based on Fidelity Magellan, FMAGX. Inception refers to reporting on the blog, and is based on the close of 2005.
7/31 portfolio.
| Asset class | % Allocated | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 0 | |
| Absolute Return Funds | 0 | |
| Market Timing - Bear | 5.06 | Inverse funds and put options equiv. to 150-200% short (basis total equity). |
| Market Timing - Bull | 7.87 | Just a temporary flutter on the dark side |
| Metals & Mining | 0 | |
| Real Estate | 0 | |
| Tech | 0 | |
| Fixed Income | 55.3 | Mostly T-bills, and a small long bond position. About half of this is in Canadian T-bills. Still in WHOSX. |
| Cash | 31.7 | And that means cash, essentially all FDIC-insured, not money market. |
Posted in * Portfolio changes, Asset Classes, Strategy & Scenarios | 
August 3rd, 2008 at 12:01 pm
May You comment, why Fidelity Magellan is selected for benchmarking?
August 3rd, 2008 at 12:10 pm
I’ve used it for a long time, and I like to maintain some consistency. Unlike tracking an index, tracking a mutual fund represents a real alternative investment. It accounts for expenses, for example. It is also easy, dividends are paid only a couple of times a year so the accounting is straightforward. Once upon a time, Magellan was a good fund. Also, it was basically the only stock fund in my employer’s retirement plan and therefore the “base case.” So the reasons are historical and idiosyncratic.
August 4th, 2008 at 8:20 am
According to data from the FastTrack database which includes effects of all distributions, FMAGX slightly outperformed VFINX, the Vanguard SP500 index fund. From the close of 2005 FMAGX returned 7.40% while VFINX returned 5.81% (not annualized). Over this time period, FMAGX was a very slightly tougher benchmark to use.