Underperforming
July 1st, 2008 by 
reality
I’m underperforming on the sell-off because I have chosen to position most of my bear puts in the NDX, Nasdaq 100, which appears to be the last refuge of the bulls and is still a long way from its March lows, unlike the Dow and the S&P. While that’s a little frustrating, I’m not concerned because these GOOGs, RIMMs and so forth are the most overpriced stocks around and will have their day in the barrel.
| Measure | June | YTD | Inception |
|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Performance | 4.90% | 10.56% | 0.54% |
| Relative Performance | 15.1% | 29.5% | (12.0)% |
Relative performance is based on Fidelity Magellan, FMAGX. Inception refers to reporting on the blog, and is based on the close of 2005.
6/30 portfolio.
| Asset class | % Allocated | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 0 | The covered calls on DUG worked just fine, but I let them run out on the June expiration |
| Absolute Return Funds | 0 | |
| Market Timing - Bear | 19.9 | Inverse funds and put options equiv. to 150-200% short (basis total equity). |
| Market Timing - Bull | 0 | |
| Metals & Mining | 0 | |
| Real Estate | 0 | |
| Tech | 0 | |
| Fixed Income | 53.9 | Mostly T-bills, and a small long bond position. About half of this is in Canadian T-bills. Still in WHOSX. Closed out HSTRX |
| Cash | 26.2 | And that means cash, mostly FDIC-insured, not money market. |
Posted in * Portfolio changes, Asset Classes, Strategy & Scenarios | 
July 2nd, 2008 at 1:15 pm
Absolute Performance 4.90% in a months - quite good.
Found funny to read in yesterdays post at
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/505-Terrifying-Tuesday.html
“If you have the same amount of money now in your investment accounts as you did at SPX 1576 in October, you are doing better than 90% of all institutional money managers and 95% of all individual investors. This puts you in the top 5% - and that’s just by going to cash in October and sitting on your hands.
If you’ve actually made money since then, you’re in the top 1%.
Really.
Yes, you are that good.”
July 2nd, 2008 at 5:11 pm
Your day is coming…hu noz, we might even see salesforce.com P/E back into the high double digits if the bear gets really vicious.
July 2nd, 2008 at 5:16 pm
My “sentiment-trading” June results are comparable, but first days of this months are in ~quite negative territory.
It’s OK, obviously need to spent more time reading others and thinking about risk management.
July 2nd, 2008 at 5:51 pm
Whatever works. I’m not competing with anyone, just recording.