financial reality

Separating fact from fiction in finance and economics


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  • InLibrisLibertas
    Location : Mill Valley, California, United States

    I'm an independent investor. I make my living from the returns on my investments. I work at home, in the northern part of the San Francisco Bay area. I spent most of my career as an executive in high-tech, although I also spent time in banking. Down to one kid in university now!

Wake-Up Call?

June 8th, 2008 by reality

Obviously the title refers to Friday’s 400-point drop in the Dow. Although the weakening economy has given off many signs and portents, share prices have remained at very high levels. Even at the March bottom, the Dow did not fall more than about 17% from its all-time highs in October 2007, less than the 20% magic number that many people consider to be the cutover between “correction” and “bear market.” Even after Friday’s tumble, the major indices are little more than 10% off their highs. Of course the shills immediately stepped forward to denounce the sellers who drove prices down on Friday as idiots. Perhaps the most outrageous shill was - no - who would have guessed - the derivatives tower - J.P. Morgan:

The biggest rise in the unemployment rate since 1986 is an “aberration” and investors who sold equities today are “completely misreading” the outlook for economic growth

All I can say is, we’ll see about that. The consumer is tapped out. The housing ATM is out of money, food and energy prices are through the roof, unemployment is rising, household net worth is dropping with real estate prices. Businesses are being squeezed between rising costs and shrinking sales. Falling tax collections are forcing government spending to be cut. Wake up! This is a recession. And it it is going to get worse. Much, much worse.

If you want to believe the shills, read this analysis first to get a flavor of how you will be treated.

Posted in Employment, Rogues and Rascals, Stocks, Strategy & Scenarios, The Economy |

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