No Recession?
April 30th, 2008 by 
reality
The government said the economy grew in the first quarter, at an 0.6% annual rate. Given that the rejiggering of the inflation calculation in the first quarter knocked an annualized 2.4% off, a better estimate would be that the economy shrank at 1.8% rate. At least that is what the same data would have yielded last year. It isn’t really meaningful to talk about a “true” number in economics where all yardsticks are made of rubber, but certainly reports such as GM’s indicate a rapid slowdown in the economy. My guess is more like a -5 to -6% annual rate, with the rate of slowing increasing.
Posted in Economics, Government, Income & Consumption, Inflation & The Dollar, Rogues and Rascals | 
April 30th, 2008 at 9:26 am
Talk about glass 1/2 full.
“A dismal U.S. market for selling pickups and SUVs along with a strike at a top parts supplier led General Motors Corp. to a massive first-quarter loss ($3.5B), but shares still surged 13% Wednesday as Wall Street had expected worse.”
Would the stock have surged 26% if they would have lost $6B? Who is investing their hard earned money in this?
Let’s see where we end up at 4 PM today.
May 1st, 2008 at 3:12 pm
Not only no recession, but a raging bull. Dow 14,000 is next?
What a cognitive disconnect. You can buy an in the money put on F for $0.65 at almost no premium. Empty all of the change from your penny jars, put them to work and buy.
Did anyone see how many vehicles they sold in April?
May 2nd, 2008 at 9:51 am
“The Federal Reserve, along with other central banks, said Friday that it was increasing the funding it is providing to banks and announced that, for the first time, it was willing to accept bonds backed by auto loans and credit cards.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/fed-expands-auction-accepts-wider/story.aspx?guid=%7BBD25FFE1%2DEF18%2D45C1%2DB984%2D3CD33807727B%7D
Why am I not surprised…
May 3rd, 2008 at 2:48 am
Craig Torres: Fed `Rogue Operation’ Spurs Further Bailout Calls
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a1ctn1Xfq5Do&refer=home
“There is no way to put the genie back in the bottle,” Minneapolis Fed President Gary Stern said in an interview with Fox Business Network on April 18. “What worries me most about where we wind up is that we will have an expansion of the safety net without adequate incentives to contain it.”
May 3rd, 2008 at 3:10 am
News from Lithuania: negative quarter-to-quarter GDP growth, first time since 1999. (Annual growth still positive 6.2 per cent).
http://www.stat.gov.lt/en/news/view/?id=3320