Stiglitz Interview
reality
CNBC interviews Joseph Stiglitz, past winner of the Bank of Sweden Prize in memory of Alfred Nobel. After observing that our favorite Eeyore, Nouriel Roubini, is “not far off”, he goes on:
The U.S. economy is already in recession — and may echo the 1930s, Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz said Friday.
“The big question is: how will the government respond?” said Stiglitz, in an interview with CNBC. Stiglitz, a Columbia University professor and 2001 winner of the Nobel prize, detailed his bleak outlook for the American economy.
This is going to be one of the worst economic downturns since the Great Depression,” said Stiglitz.
He explained that main cause of the current situation is historically unique—and thus is befuddling those charged with creating solutions.
Other downturns were primarily caused by excesses in inventories or inflation; but this slowdown is due to the condition of “badly impaired” banks and financial entities, which are unwilling and/or unable to lend capital — stymieing the very borrowers who usually drive the country back to vitality, Stiglitz said. And the Federal Reserve may have used up its ammunition — and the faith investors and planners have put in it.
“[The Fed] will be between a rock and hard place. And we’re not over-worrying about credit. But [simultaneously], we need to start worrying about the real sector,” he said.
And if inflation wasn’t the prime recession cause, it’s still a menace. The professor points to the two-pronged danger of high oil prices joined by climbing food prices, harming businesses and scaring consumers.
“Oil is particularly bad,” as it means that more U.S. dollars “will be going abroad,” he said.
The housing downturn is an even worse economic factor than casual observers realized, Stiglitz said. He explained that during the real estate boom, Americans were able to withdraw billions of dollars from their home equity.
“[But] with housing prices coming down, it’s going to be difficult to do that anymore,” he said — drying up a spending source. And within that problem, still another complication: people typically spent the money they drew off their home equity on consumption, rather than investment — garnering no return on the spending.
“The savings rate as we go into the recession is zero. Which means [savings] will go up, ” he said—decreasing consumer spending and weakening retail further.
What about the government stimulus package?
“The Bush Administration’s response is too little, too late — and very badly designed,” he declared. The amount ostensibly being infused into the economy by tax rebate checks will be a “drop in the bucket” compared to the money being held back and siphoned out by the factors he mentioned.
“If you really wanted to stimulate the economy, increase unemployment insurance,” he suggested.
“The president is telling people to go out and get jobs—and there are no jobs for them,” he said.
Like Roubini, he seems pretty realistic. It isn’t complicated and he explains the situation pretty well, certainly nothing I have a problem with. So why can’t others understand it?
Posted in Economics, The Economy, The Fed |
April 26th, 2008 at 11:43 am
“It isn’t complicated and he explains the situation pretty well,”
It is complicated. We live in the (very interesting) short squeeze depression times. Would be nice to find observers, capable to explain current process.
April 26th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
The economic situation isn’t complicated. It is a collapsing credit bubble.
As the short squeeze, are you referring to the stock market? This is surprising, but not unprecedented. In 1929, it was apparent that there was a financial crisis and that the economy was in deep trouble long before the October crash. The banking system, chiefly the rural banks, had been under stress since the collapse of agricultural prices in 1920. Rural banks were failing throughout the 20’s. There were 491 US bank failures in 1928, and 642 in 1929. Auto production started to be cut back in May, and over the summer many other signs of the recession which officially began in August, 1929 were present. The market finally broke at its September 4th. high - the so-called “Babson break”- and fell about 12 1/2%, but then a short squeeze caused the market to recoup much of its losses before rolling over again into the October crash.
Feeling lucky?
April 27th, 2008 at 2:06 am
Yes, feeling. My remark about short squeeze was possibly too personal.
What is really interesting, is difference in credit dynamics between now and then. The very question, what is a money, and what is a credit, is unanswered for me. Or the question, how credit in thirties was different from our days.
Obviously, differences exist.
April 27th, 2008 at 8:46 am
There is no generally accepted definition. I take the position that the only money is the monetary base (currency and reserves held in accounts at the Fed). Everything else is credit of varying quality.
The 1920s were rife with “financial innovation” such as consumer credit. There was a real estate bubble, as well. The big difference is that in the 1930s the banks took the hit for the defaults - over 9,000 banks failed. This time, it is the unregulated and unsupported “shadow” banking system which will take the hit - securitized or non-bank credit.
This means that the impact of the defaults will be much more dispersed than in the 1930s. Greenspan took the position that this was a good thing. I don’t know. In the Great Depression, people abruptly stopped spending. Credit was available, but people developed a fear of borrowing. Consumer confidence is crashing. This indicates to me that the same thing may be happening. WSJ: “U.S. consumer confidence in April fell to its lowest level since March 1982, according to a report Friday. The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer-sentiment survey declined to 62.6 in April from 69.5 in March. Nine out of 10 respondents said they believed the economy is now in recession, and many said they expect to use government rebate checks to pay down debt or increase savings”