financial reality

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  • InLibrisLibertas
    Location : Mill Valley, California, United States

    I'm an independent investor. I make my living from the returns on my investments. I work at home, in the northern part of the San Francisco Bay area, or on my boat which I keep in the British Virgin Islands. I spent most of my career as an executive in high-tech, although I also spent time in banking. Down to one kid in university now!

Helicopter Ben

February 27th, 2008 by reality

Mr Bernanke told the House today that he was open to further easing of interest rates. Well that’s a shock. And that avoiding recession was more important than avoiding inflation.

Why?

Recession temporarily reduces incomes and consumption as consumers rebuild their savings. Malinvestment is written off and productive investment eventually resumes. Inflation, on the other hand, steals from everyone, permanently, in the same way governments have been debasing the currency since classical times. Recessions are a necessary and healthy element of the business cycle and trying to avoid them by creating one credit bubble after another will eventually end in disaster. Either Zimbabwe-like inflation, or Depression-era deflation. It is probably too late to have just a mild recession to get savings, consumption and investment back into reasonable proportion. But maybe not. Economics isn’t a science, after all.

Posted in Strategy & Scenarios, The Economy, The Fed |

One Response

  1. MarketWorth Says:

    “Inflation, on the other hand, steals from everyone,”

    That is the goal or at least a temptation - by no mean a misunderstanding, or a mistake : making everyone pay.

    Usually, the governments also think that it’s the less painful way to deal with the crisis. One can hide many things in inflation.

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