Since the end of 1945, according to the NBER, the economy has been in recession 14% of the time, on a monthly basis. On an annual basis, 31% of years have been completely or partially in recession. The average recession has lasted 10 months; the average expansion, 57 months. However, only 3 of 10 expansions have been longer than the 72 months of the current expansion (assuming it lasted through November).

So if you knew nothing about economic data, you would have to say that the probability of a recession next year is around 50-50; prima facie it is 31%, but adding in the age of the expansion increases the probability.

Yet 61 of 63 say, no way, José.  I guess this is why unanimity amongst economists has the reputation of being a great fade.

Anyway,  I guess they didn’t poll Robert Shiller, who warns:

“This is a classic bubble scenario. A few years ago house prices got very high, pushed up because of investor expectations. Americans have fuelled the myth that prices would never fall, that values could only go up. People believed the story. Now there is a very real chance of a big recession.”