“If I had to be bold I’d say we began a recession in December,” Bill Gross of Pimco told the Financial Times. Note that the “Super-SIV” or M-LEC mentioned in the article has been abandoned, according to the WSJ. Apparently the supply of idiots with money was rather smaller than first suspected.

Paul Kasriel of Northern Trust is more tentative, calling for a 65.5% probability of recession in 2008. We need to have a discussion on accuracy versus precision with Paul. For example, “More likely than not”. 65.5%. Economists. You gotta love ‘em.

ECRI, on the other hand, has not rolled over yet. “With Weekly Leading Index growth not far from its lowest reading since the 2001 recession, U.S. growth prospects have clearly darkened, but a recession is still not inevitable,” Achuthan said. Let’s just say I beg to differ. I think your index is giving too much credit to the stock market. Is “not inevitable” the same as “more likely than not?” How about 65.5%? Inquiring minds want to know.