Reality Check
reality
You wouldn’t know it from the frantic jamming in the stock market, but there is a financial crisis in progress. It is not a panic, but could turn into one at any minute.
- The US dollar is in free-fall against the euro, the pound and the Canadian dollar.
- The secondary market for mortgage-backed securities is dead.
- There is fear of huge losses when mortgage-backed securities are traded or valued at their market prices.
- House prices are falling rapidly and sales volumes have been cut in half.
- Forecasts for the fourth quarter (even ECRI) show little or no growth.
- Corporate earnings declined in the third quarter and are likely to continue to fall in the fourth quarter.
- Consumer spending is weakening, albeit only slightly at this point. But credit-card debt is rising fast.
- The prices of oil and other commodities are soaring (in US dollars). Gold is threatening its historic highs.
Be careful out there. I know I’ve said this before, but things keep getting scarier and scarier. We’ve got the faith-based economy and the reality-based economy. Something’s gotta give.
Posted in Commodities, Debt, Energy, Fixed Income, International, Manias, Metals & Mining, Real Estate, Stocks |
October 29th, 2007 at 12:52 pm
I agree we should see lower prices, but concerned that we could have one last speculative burst up that wipes out the shorts a la 1999 and nasdaq up 50%. It also gives me pause to see so-called smart money guys like citadel and Bill Miller up to their eyeballs in homebuilders. It ain’t easy making money.
October 29th, 2007 at 3:27 pm
The thing is, no-one knows the future.
I’m just looking at what is happening now. Or more accurately what has already happened, “now” is a little bit of a shaky concept.