financial reality

Separating fact from fiction in finance and economics


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  • InLibrisLibertas
    Location : Mill Valley, California, United States

    I'm an independent investor. I make my living from the returns on my investments. I work at home, in the northern part of the San Francisco Bay area. I spent most of my career as an executive in high-tech, although I also spent time in banking. Down to one kid in university now!

Reality Check

October 29th, 2007 by reality

You wouldn’t know it from the frantic jamming in the stock market, but there is a financial crisis in progress. It is not a panic, but could turn into one at any minute.

  • The US dollar is in free-fall against the euro, the pound and the Canadian dollar.
  • The secondary market for mortgage-backed securities is dead.
  • There is fear of huge losses when mortgage-backed securities are traded or valued at their market prices.
  • House prices are falling rapidly and sales volumes have been cut in half.
  • Forecasts for the fourth quarter (even ECRI) show little or no growth.
  • Corporate earnings declined in the third quarter and are likely to continue to fall in the fourth quarter.
  • Consumer spending is weakening, albeit only slightly at this point. But credit-card debt is rising fast.
  • The prices of oil and other commodities are soaring (in US dollars). Gold is threatening its historic highs.

Be careful out there. I know I’ve said this before, but things keep getting scarier and scarier. We’ve got the faith-based economy and the reality-based economy. Something’s gotta give.

Posted in Commodities, Debt, Energy, Fixed Income, International, Manias, Metals & Mining, Real Estate, Stocks |

2 Responses

  1. Ed Says:

    I agree we should see lower prices, but concerned that we could have one last speculative burst up that wipes out the shorts a la 1999 and nasdaq up 50%. It also gives me pause to see so-called smart money guys like citadel and Bill Miller up to their eyeballs in homebuilders. It ain’t easy making money.

  2. reality Says:

    The thing is, no-one knows the future.

    I’m just looking at what is happening now. Or more accurately what has already happened, “now” is a little bit of a shaky concept.

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