The real interesting question is how much oversupply is there in the housing marketplace. Just looking at vacancy rates suggests that there are about 1 million vacant units (owned) in excess of the normal long-term average vacancy rate. And that doesn’t count the homebuilder inventory, which is pretty much unknown. But the other thing is, the home ownership rate is about 4% above its long term average as a result of the bubble. That’s about 2.5 million units if you believe, as I do, that the current home ownership rate is unsustainable and will return to trend. So there may be as many as 3.5 million units of oversupply. And they’re still building a million units a year.

Yes, I know those people have to live somewhere and will move to rental accommodation. And some of those “ownership” units will become rentals, because there are not enough vacant rentals to take up the slack. But they’ll do so at prices which make them economically viable - profitable - to the owner as rentals. So rents probably aren’t going down much, if at all. But house prices will likely decline to the point that it is significantly cheaper to own than to rent if you have the money or can get financing. Getting financing will mean a substantial down payment, excellent credit history and documented stable income well able to make payments. Maybe that sounds harsh, but that is the way it was at 64% home ownership. It worked for a long time. Driving the rate to 69% in pursuit of some political vision has come at an immense cost.