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  • InLibrisLibertas
    Location : Mill Valley, California, United States

    I'm an independent investor. I make my living from the returns on my investments. I work at home, in the northern part of the San Francisco Bay area. I spent most of my career as an executive in high-tech, although I also spent time in banking. Down to one kid in university now!

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October 11th, 2007 by reality

We had a mini-panic today for no apparent reason (other than exhaustion, of course). I suspect this little affair when the Nasdaq 100 index swung from +20 to -50 or thereabouts is an indication of what can happen when the robo-traders start to feed on one another to the downside. If you were watching the action today I suspect you feel the idea of a full-scale panic is not so far-fetched, after all.

Bill Fleckenstein commented about the current market’s disconnection from reality: “So, as someone who has witnessed a lot of insanity, I would say that this moment (not necessarily this morning) is perhaps the craziest I’ve ever seen, and maybe the craziest in the history of the country. Which of course doesn’t mean it can’t get crazier, because once you get to points like this, there’s no telling how wacko things can be. But my feeling has been that this will be a landslide when it goes, which is why I have continued to be on red-alert every day. ”

As thought likely, year over year expected third quarter earnings growth for the S&P 500 has turned negative and is now at -0.65%.

Also from Reuters columnist James Saft: “Retail sales rose just 0.3 percent in August, and when motor vehicles and parts were stripped out, sales fell 0.4 percent, the sharpest drop since September 2006.

Considering that people always have to eat and many Americans have only limited discretion over how much gasoline they use, a period when credit card debt is expanding rapidly while retail sales are contracting points to debt financing of necessities, rather than luxuries.”

Posted in Bill Fleckenstein, Income & Consumption, Stocks |

2 Responses

  1. Gavin Stevens Says:

    I found it interesting how fast the market sold off today. One minute RIMM was $117 / share and in 2 minutes is was at $105. It happenned so fast that CNBC didn’t even say anything till about 20 minutes after the fall. Everyone on message boards was like, What just happenned? It really reminded me of the morning of Sept 11th. 2 minutes into the selloff there is no news, no nothing to explain the drop. Everyone just sat there in disbelief. How easily people seem to forget the days when you were scared to go long on any stock because the probability of losing money was just as great as the probability of making money.

    The VIX chart speaks volumes at how fast things can change… http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5d

    ATI warned after hours…
    Maybe your prediction of a Black Friday, cound come true.

  2. reality Says:

    Just to be clear, I’m not predicting a “Black Friday”. I think there is a heightened probability of a crash or panic, but that’s still a low probability event. But high enough that it is a real possibility, unlike, say, the non-zero probability that all the air molecules in my office will gather in one corner for a moment.

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