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  • InLibrisLibertas
    Location : Mill Valley, California, United States

    I'm an independent investor. I make my living from the returns on my investments. I work at home, in the northern part of the San Francisco Bay area. I spent most of my career as an executive in high-tech, although I also spent time in banking. Down to one kid in university now!

Clueless In Oakland

August 27th, 2007 by reality

Sometimes I read things in the press that just make me shake my head in despair. This piece is a prime example.

“Two brothers, Antonio and Pedro, and Antonio’s wife, Isabel, bought a three-bedroom home in the East Oakland flatlands five years ago. They saved up a 3 percent down payment from the brothers’ jobs at a vegetable market and Isabel’s part-time work cleaning houses….

…The house is now worth $425,000, $100,000 more than they owe on the mortgage.

Now the Sanchezes want to follow the same trajectory as other first-time homeowners, trading up to a bigger house near their relatives in Woodland (Yolo County), in a better neighborhood with good schools for Antonio and Isabel’s two young children.

But the chances that they can sell their home, which has been on the market for four weeks, are slim.

“Luckily, they have equity,” said their Realtor, Mary Dresser of Prudential California Realty. “But if they can’t sell, they don’t really have any equity, or at least they can’t gain access to their equity….

Even cutting the price wouldn’t help, Dresser said, unless it were a “fire-sale” slashing of $100,000. “Then they’d have no house and no money,” she said.

Get a clue, Mary. If cutting the price $100K would get the house sold, then that is what it is worth. These folks may have had “equity” at some point. But they don’t have it any more. I know, they are entitled to a $100,000 profit, at someone else’s expense, so they can “move up the property ladder”. Well heck, they’re hardworking after all, that means they get a freebie, right? Hello. That game is over, we ran out of “someone elses” when the last batch of “someone elses” couldn’t pay their debts. Those big profits in real estate came at the expense of people who shackled themselves to huge debt burdens, that even if affordable will keep them house-poor for a very long time and in many cases drive them into bankruptcy. Yes, they did so willingly, but people need to realise that trading houses doesn’t add any value to the economy, your profit is someone else’s expense.

When people expect a house to pay for their retirement, or their kids’ college education, or whatever, they need to understand that means someone is working to pay that money.

The Ponzi game of inflating the prices of houses with ever-expanding mortgage debt turned out to have a limit. The next stage of the game is already underway as the debt industry implodes. The really smug cities, like New York and San Francisco, that are the money (debt) centers are particularly vulnerable because they have had it so good for so long.

Posted in Real Estate |

6 Responses

  1. Red Brian Says:

    My 60-something aunt finally paid off her house last year.

    Rather than save like crazy for retirement she rented her house out and bought a new one with a no-down double mortgage. Then she took out another mortgage on her old house to cover the cost of finishing the basement in the new abode.

    I strongly encouraged her to sell the house for what she owes on it and count herself lucky. She refuses to sell for another year and a half because she doesn’t want to pay capital gains on her quarter of a million dollar real estate gain (huh?).

    One mistake and she loses everything plus she is ineligible for chapter 7 because she earns slightly more than the state median income.

    One of us is crazy. For her sake I hope that it is me…

  2. reality Says:

    Unfortunately you sound pretty sane to me…

  3. Red Brian Says:

    People seem to think that there is no downside at the roulette wheel of life these days.

    ——-

    I’m rich, I make the poor people cry
    And I bet it all on black because it can’t be denied

    I’m in debt, but we’ll worry about that later
    Let me show you the crib, the pool and the elevator

    (from the rap song Blastic)

  4. sysin3 Says:

    The greater fool theory only works … until it doesn’t. Sorry about the auntie.

  5. Red Brian Says:

    It is difficult watching someone bet everything they have on an assumption that they can sell a property, for a profit, in a declining market, before they retire in five years.

    But this *is* a society where you can succeed or fail beyond your wildest dreams.

    Who knows, things may turn out fantabulous and I will look silly sitting in cash waiting for a crash that never happened…

  6. Gavin Stevens Says:

    I’ve sat back watching 23 year old kids put thier names down on exotic car lists, take safaris to Africa and spend $1800 for dinner with no regrets…

    The real-estate mania makes fools of those think they are brilliant. Now reality is here and the african safaris are over… the mortgage payments come due. No longer can they put 10k down on new construction and sell it for 50k profit by the time the homes are built. I was starting to think I was crazy for not jumping on the bandwagon, but wait.. I’ve been there before.. Most can only learn by experience it seems..

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