financial reality

Separating fact from fiction in finance and economics


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  • InLibrisLibertas
    Location : Mill Valley, California, United States

    I'm an independent investor. I make my living from the returns on my investments. I work at home, in the northern part of the San Francisco Bay area. I spent most of my career as an executive in high-tech, although I also spent time in banking. Down to one kid in university now!

Bubbles Are Fed Failures

August 19th, 2007 by reality

Steve Roach pipes up from his new job in Siberia Asia. His point is one that I have made in the past - central banks cannot ignore asset prices.

“It is high time for monetary authorities to adopt new procedures–namely, taking the state of asset markets into explicit consideration when framing policy options. As the increasing prevalence of bubbles indicates, a failure to recognize the interplay between the state of asset markets and the real economy is an egregious policy error.”

(Note: readability grades: Kincaid: 16.3, ARI: 16.9, Coleman-Liau: 16.5, Flesch Index: 22.4/100, Fog Index: 18.0, Lix: 57.0 = higher than school year 11, SMOG-Grading: 15.2 - must be a real economist)

And from the same Fortune section, we have Jeremy Grantham:

“There is a lot of pain still to be had in the equity markets, particularly aimed at the risky end of the spectrum. We think the fair value on the market is about a third lower in the U.S and EAFE from today and about a quarter less in emerging markets.”

And Jim Rogers:

“I have been and continue to be short the investment banks and the commercial banks. If they bounce up, I’ll probably short more. I’m certainly not buying anything. The market’s only down 8%. I don’t consider that a buying opportunity. The things that I’m short, some people probably think are buying opportunities, but I don’t. I’ve been short the banks for close to a year, and for a while it was not fun. But I added to my positions, and now it’s a lot of fun.”

And to round out the crew with a wistful note, we have Warren Buffett:

“In one way, I’m sympathetic to the institutional reluctance to face the music. I’d give a lot to mark my weight to “model” rather than to “market.”"

Posted in Jeremy Grantham, Jim Rogers, Real Estate, Steve Roach, Stocks, The Economy, The Fed, Warren Buffett |

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