The Four Horsemen
reality
Jim Cramer, CNBC’s star hysteric stock shill, says his “four horsemen” of tech: INTC, DELL, MSFT, CSCO, are finally stumbling and need to be replaced with four new horsemen. From 2000 until now, Cramer thought “Even kryptonite couldn’t hurt” these super stocks, but now INTC is down 71% and Cisco has declined 67% from their high points in 2000, while Dell is down 54% and MSFT is down 49% since 1999. Cramer named four new tech stocks which can be owned even in the summertime: RIMM, AMZN, GOOG and AAPL. RIMM is the “undisputed winner of the handheld” and is making headway in Latin America. Google “owns search” is voraciously “destroying everything in its path,” and although it has gone up, Cramer says his prediction that it will reach $600 is conservative. While there are many imitators, Amazon “has the mechanics to dominate for years,” since it is tech and a retailer rolled into one. Cramer wouldn’t buy Apple right now, but would sell it as it goes up and would buy it after the iPhone release. Apple controls the MP3 market with iPod and is moving into phones; “It’s an aspirational brand,” said Cramer.
Of course this made me think of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse: Famine, Pestilence, Death and War. Seeing how successful Cramer was with the last four, my short finger twitched and added to my XLK (Technology ETF) short position. XLK is a nice bundle, heavily weighted to the big tech names, including MSFT. In my view, this is one of the juiciest short opportunities because you’re not going to get squeezed (the market cap of the heaviest weighted underlyings is immense, just too big to jerk around) yet these puppies are enormously overvalued. Unlike the NASDAQ 100, you don’t have to worry about healthcare or something like that that might actually have a long-term future getting in there. I mean, just look at the top 10 here (accounting for 56% of the total):
| Company Name | Symbol | Weight % | My Opinion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft | MSFT | 10.23 | Has never made a success of anything except line extensions to its Windows monopoly; competition from Linux, alternatives to the PC, customer disaffection and just sheer bureaucracy slowly choking it. |
| AT&T | T | 7.98 | IP technology chipping away at the traditional telco business; wireless business dependent on consumer discretionary spending which is going to be weak. |
| Cisco Systems | CSCO | 6.57 | High cost company with emerging competitors; if stock price suffers R&D by acquisition will suffer; way too much water in stock from option plans. |
| International Business Machines | IBM | 6.04 | One of the better companies on the list, but services business slowly getting eroded by offshore competition (rumors of major staff reductions/offshoring); hardware and software businesses still too dependent on the mainframe. |
| Intel | INTC | 4.7 | Has only ever paid a token dividend; all attempts to diversify away from the computer chip business have failed; increasingly expensive fabs keep soaking up the profits; losing share to AMD and PC alternatives; chip market has tons of overcapacity and Intel has beaucoup inventory to unload. |
| Verizon Communications | VZ | 4.7 | See AT&T |
| Hewlett-Packard | HPQ | 4.6 | Probably the best company on the list with a strong manager in charge; but very vulnerable to any downturn in IT spend. |
| GOOG | 4.24 | Overpriced pig totally dependent on advertising. Do you know what happens to advertising expenditures in a recession or depression? It isn’t pretty. | |
| Apple | AAPL | 3.59 | A very vulnerable business dependent on consumers with money to spend on overpriced toys. Aspirations are all very well, but if the cards are maxed out they don’t make any money for anyone. |
| Oracle | ORCL | 3.1 | Rapidly saturating market for enterprise software; IT spending starting to take a hit already and will suffer greatly in a recession. |
Posted in Rogues and Rascals, Stocks, Strategy & Scenarios, Technology |
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