“The WLI is showing broad-based strength in its forward-looking components, including those for the services and industrial sectors. Therefore, the prospect of a recession is minuscule at this point,” says Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

Is minuscule different from zero?

Paul Kasriel says: “I am not aware that any recession has been predicted by a consensus of economic prognosticators. Two reliable recession indicators are now flashing a warning signal and private domestic demand is showing weakness. Maybe it’s different this time? Perhaps it isn’t. Only the National Bureau of Economic Research will know for sure.”

Paul Kasriel is the recipient of the 2006 Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecasting Accuracy.