The exuberance over yesterday’s apparent gains in new SFR (”home” - see below) sales won’t last. The same thing happened in April last year, and the gains were revised away. These will be, too, and remember they don’t take cancellations into account. I guarantee it, as the Men’s Wearhouse guy says. The report on existing SFR sales today was more sobering, although it, too, considering the time lag between transaction and closing, probably still doesn’t reflect the real-time situation in mortgage finance. Even so, sales fell more than expected and reported prices have now been falling for nine months in a row. The inventory of SFRs for sale rose 10% in a single month (to a new all-time high) while the months supply spiked to 8.4 months. I see no reason to believe the trajectory has changed at all.

The use of the word “home” is real estate sales-speak for a single-family residence (SFR). A SFR may or may not be a home. It is only a home if someone makes it their home. Otherwise it is just a piece of property - land and structure. Real estate sellers like to use “home”, well because everybody needs a home, don’t they? And it has all kinds of positive connotations. Cynical. I try not to get caught up in the thought control. Right now there are a heck of a lot more SFRs out there than homes.