financial reality

Separating fact from fiction in finance and economics


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  • InLibrisLibertas
    Location : Mill Valley, California, United States

    I'm an independent investor. I make my living from the returns on my investments. I work at home, in the northern part of the San Francisco Bay area. I spent most of my career as an executive in high-tech, although I also spent time in banking. Down to one kid in university now!

Bloomie Is Gloomie

February 2nd, 2007 by reality

Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) — “Defaults on mortgages to people with poor credit histories or large debt burdens rose in November above their worst levels during the last recession six years ago, according to Friedman Billings Ramsey Group Inc. (Friedman Billings is an investment bank and money manager with a focus on mortgage companies and assets. It also owns First NLC Financial Services LLC, a non-prime mortgage lender.)

The percentage of subprime mortgages packaged into bonds and delinquent by 90 days or more, in foreclosure or already turned into seized properties climbed to 10.09 percent from 9.08 percent in October, analysts led by Michael D. Youngblood at the Arlington, Virginia-based firm said in a report today…..

Fraud by borrowers is also contributing to higher defaults, according to lending executives including Originate Home Loans Inc. Chief Executive Officer James Marino. One type is the use of “straw buyers” who are in collusion with homebuilders or real estate speculators, he said. The buyers don’t intend to pay back their loans after buying a house for more than it’s worth.

At least a third of potential subprime loans that brokers discuss having Marino’s Westmont, Illinois-based lender make appear to involve fraud, he said. He is cutting about half of his 80-person staff to reduce his company’s business of lending through brokers, whom he calls often complicit”

That was for November. The ABX indices have cratered since then. And we haven’t even gotten into recession yet. Poor Goldilocks.

Posted in Debt, Real Estate | Comments Off

Still Short After All These Years

February 1st, 2007 by reality

The title says it all. High odds of small upside gains, low odds of huge downside gains.

Measure January YTD
Absolute Performance (3.02)% (3.02)%
Relative Performance (5.76)% (5.76)%

Relative performance is based on Fidelity Magellan, FMAGX.

1/31 portfolio.

Asset class % Allocated Comment
Energy 30.3 Canadian income trusts: Pengrowth, Peyto, Provident, True, Canetic, Advantage
Absolute Return Funds 4.3 HSGFX, Hedge Fund
Market Timing - Bear 11.6 Put options equiv. to 100% short (basis total equity).
Market Timing - Bull 0.0 Overseas index funds, NDX and RUT index funds
Metals & Mining 10.8 Newmont, Yamana
Real Estate 0.90 Put options on homebuilders XHB, and the banking index, BKX. Also RTH for the expected slowdown in spending.
Technology 0.40 Put options SMH.
Biotech 0.67 Nastech
Fixed Income 16.4 Mostly T-bills and a small long bond position.
Cash 24.8

Posted in * Portfolio changes, Energy, Fixed Income, Metals & Mining, Real Estate, Stocks, Strategy & Scenarios | No Comments »

Poison In The Porridge

February 1st, 2007 by reality

The “Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter” has now reached 18. The ABX indices seem to be in free-fall. GM and Ford’s sales are crashing. NAPM (ISM) fell below 50. No-one cares. Bizarre.

Posted in Real Estate, Stocks, The Economy | No Comments »

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