According to Reuters, ECRI said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 138.5 in the week ending Dec. 22 from 139.7 in the prior week, due to higher interest rates and more jobless claims. However, annualized growth in the week ended Dec. 22 rose to 3.8 percent from 3.4 percent in the prior period, a reading not reached since last February.

“Given the steady improvement in the WLI, recession is no longer a serious concern,” said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

Well they have a convincing track record. But I’m not convinced. If, as, and when there is reason to believe either mortgage equity borrowing will begin strengthening again or another sufficiently large source of bubble credit collateral becomes apparent, then I will be ready to be convinced.