At some point, news like this will matter: “SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Shipments for U.S.-made personal computers and related equipment plunged nearly 25% in October to the lowest level in at least 14 years… Shipments of PCs, mainframe computers and peripheral gear fell 24.9% to $4.72 billion, from $6.28 billion in September, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. The figure was the lowest since the government began tracking those figures in 1992. Orders fell a similar amount, dropping 25.6% to $4.77 billion, the third-lowest level since 1993. The drop helped push down orders for all electronic products 10.2% to $27.58 billion.”

The presentation at this link is extremely thought-provoking. Take it seriously or not (I do), it is riveting. Closing The Collapse Gap.

Worth reading from Steve Roach: “In the absence of interest-rate pressures, most believe that financial markets enjoy a Teflon-like immunity from any and all potential sources of adversity. I have my doubts. A number of potentially powerful macro forces are now in play that could challenge this conclusion — namely, a bursting of the US housing bubble, renewed dollar weakness, and a pro-labor swing of the political pendulum. Any one of these developments has the potential to derail a seemingly benign macro climate. A combination of them would be all the more destabilizing.

The risk is that investors are trapped in the past — aiming their defenses in the wrong direction. Such a possibility reminds me of the legendary Battle of Singapore in 1942. Convinced that the next war would be like the ones of the past, British military strategists positioned their fixed artillery for a classic invasion by sea. The Japanese, of course, invaded by land from the North — leading to what historians have called one of the largest and quickest capitulations in British military history and Winston Churchill’s worst disaster. Here’s where history may have something to say about increasingly complacent financial markets. No two endgames are alike.”

[ Zugzwang typically occurs when all the moves available are "bad" moves, dramatically weakening the moving player's position (Müller and Lamprecht 2001:22)]

In The Big Picture, an interview With Richard Arvedlund, Founder, Cypress Capital Management, by Sandra Ward in Barron’s.

“Wal-Mart is my favorite economist. It is huge, reflects the low- to middle-income sector of the economy and it gives us monthly statistics. What has happened is a dramatic reduction in spending by low-end consumers. It is starting to impact not only Wal-Mart’s outlook but, we presume, quite a few other retailers. Wal-Mart’s reaction has been to become even more competitive, so I would suspect the retail-sales environment will be the next sector of the economy that we will start to hear less exciting news from.”

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — “Wal-Mart Stores Inc. reported surprisingly weak November sales on Saturday, even as U.S. bargain-hunters jammed stores in search of gifts at the start of the crucial holiday shopping season.

The world’s biggest retailer estimated that November sales fell 0.1 percent at its U.S. stores open at least a year.”

This includes “Black Friday” results, apparently. Speaks for their leading-edge IT. They may look kind of old-fashioned and cheap, but they have spent where it counts on IT for a long time.

The Wall Street Journal is running a blog on holiday sales that is available to non-subscribers.