financial reality

Separating fact from fiction in finance and economics


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  • InLibrisLibertas
    Location : Mill Valley, California, United States

    I'm an independent investor. I make my living from the returns on my investments. I work at home, in the northern part of the San Francisco Bay area, or on my boat which I keep in the British Virgin Islands. I spent most of my career as an executive in high-tech, although I also spent time in banking. Down to one kid in university now!

Flat November

November 30th, 2006 by reality

Good gains in energy offset continuing losses in market timing, where my system is still short. New records for worst drawdown and longest trade. But as other comments have mentioned, the economy is in poor shape and the markets are diverging dramatically. Can you say 3Q29?

Measure November YTD
Absolute Performance (0.1)% (3.12)%
Relative Performance (2.42)% (11.31)%

Relative performance is based on Fidelity Magellan, FMAGX.

10/31 portfolio.

Asset class % Allocated Comment
Energy 33.63 Canadian income trusts: Pengrowth, Peyto, Provident, True
Absolute Return Funds 3.86 HSGFX, Hedge Fund (reduced HSGFX)
Market Timing 26.18 Put options and bear funds equiv. to 200% short (basis total equity). Added some foreign currency longs.
Metals & Mining 5.29 Newmont
Real Estate 2.28 Put options on homebuilders and finance companies XHB, CFC, COF, FNM, MTG and the banking index, BKX. Also RTH for the expected slowdown in spending.
Technology 0.34 Put options FSL, RIMM, INTC, HPQ. Added SMH.
Fixed Income 20.37 Mostly T-bills and a small long bond position.
Cash 7.40

Posted in Asset Classes, Strategy & Scenarios |

One Response

  1. James Says:

    Curious as to your rational for reducing HSGFX? I am very familiar with the fund and it is by far my clients single largest holding (and not by a small margin). Based on my knowledge of the fund, we are at the very point in the cycle when its performance should begin to be compelling. Thanks…