financial reality

Separating fact from fiction in finance and economics


Archives:

Meta:

Enter your Email


Preview | Powered by FeedBlitz

About Me:

  • InLibrisLibertas
    Location : Mill Valley, California, United States

    I'm an independent investor. I make my living from the returns on my investments. I work at home, in the northern part of the San Francisco Bay area, or on my boat which I keep in the British Virgin Islands. I spent most of my career as an executive in high-tech, although I also spent time in banking. Down to one kid in university now!

Another One

November 30th, 2006 by reality

Weakness in the housing market is likely to push the economy into a recession next year, according to a forecast by the Center for Economic and Policy Research.

“Recession Looms for the U.S. Economy in 2007,” by economist Dean Baker, predicts that the economic recovery that began in November 2001 will come to an end in 2007.

“This recovery has been fueled by a housing bubble, just as the late 90s cycle was fueled by a stock bubble,” said Baker. “Now that the housing market has weakened, Americans are looking at a recession in 2007.”

Baker expects that the weakness from the housing market, which is already spreading over to other sectors of the economy, will have an even larger impact in 2007 as consumers lose the ability to borrow against dwindling home equity. With weak consumer demand dampening investment, the economy is likely to shrink by close to 1 percentage point over the course of the year.

Predictions for 2007 (2006Q4 – 2007Q4)
GDP growth -0.7 percent
Job growth -1.2 million
Nominal wage growth 3.4 percent
Inflation (CPI) 2.6 percent
Residential construction -12.0 percent
Consumption -1.2 percent
Investment 2.0 percent
Exports 4.0 percent
Imports -2.0 percent
Government expenditures 2.0 percent

Posted in The Economy |

Leave a Comment

Please note: Comment moderation is enabled and may delay your comment. There is no need to resubmit your comment.