In July, Nouriel Roubini forecast a 1.5% GDP growth rate for the 3rd. quarter and it came in at 1.6%. Close enough. He is currently forecasting Q4 at between 0 and 1% and Q1 2007 as negative. I think he is too optimistic, but we’ll see.

Of course, many economists who were wrong are pointing out the strong personal consumption number in the release to indicate that it is just an aberration, and that the fourth quarter will likely be strong. The market seemed to agree, and resumed its climb on Friday after a modest pullback until Goldman Sachs reduced its forecast for motherboard shipment growth this quarter, saying demand is `falling off a cliff”. Shipments in October declined 4.2 percent from September, Goldman estimates. That compared with an earlier prediction for 3.1 percent growth and average month-to-month growth of 12.7 percent between 2001 and 2005. That, unsuprisingly, took the wind out of the semiconductor stocks and the market ended the day lower. Next week will be interesting.