For the record, we were warned. A small selection of charts:First, an update of Robert Shiller’s housing price history, from earlier this year, published today in the New York Times. Click on the small chart for a full-size version.

With all due respect, does it seem likely that this will not result in an abrupt reversal now that (apparently) prices have stopped going up? In any event, we proceed to the next chart which is also real-estate related. It shows the NAHB housing index versus the S&P 500, lagged one year. The correlation is about 0.8, but you can just look at the chart to see that.

And now to the real kicker, which is employment. I’ve mentioned before that falling retail employment is a harbinger of recession and the following chart shows clearly why this is the case. Retail employment leads employment in general. Res ipsa loquitur.

By the way, the ECRI smoothed index fell again on Friday to -1.6%. No recession call yet from them, I guess Roubini was out first anyway so they won’t hurry.