Red Flags
August 19th, 2006 by 
reality
How many red flags of oncoming recession do we need before anyone pays attention?:
| Indicator | Source | Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Inverted yield curve | U.S. Treasury | See Ignore At Your Own Risk |
| Declining real wages | BLS | Year-over-year. See Ahead Of The Curve |
| Declining housing starts | U.S. Census | See Hussman Funds. Stochastic is now 0.02. Close enough. |
| Leading indicators negative | Conference Board | |
| ECRI trend negative | Reuters | No recession call yet, but trend persists |
| Declining business conditions | Morgan Stanley | |
| Declining auto sales | New York Times | See the link, 100% track record |
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Posted in Stocks, The Economy | 
August 21st, 2006 at 11:33 am
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August 23rd, 2006 at 4:18 pm
Did you see this cool tool?
http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2006/04/reckoning-odds-of-recession.html