CNNMoney did an informal online poll as to whether now was a good time to buy a house. Interestingly, 56% answered that it was better to wait.

CNNMoney Poll

This term is often used but not understood. Hedging is a technique for removing specific risks from a position by entering an offsetting short position. Most often, it is used to remove market risk - beta - from a stock position, so that the return on the position becomes that of the outperformance of the position (plus the interest on the proceeds of the short), its excess return or alpha. In the trivial case of a perfect hedge, where the hedge is identical to the original asset, then the net position should earn the market risk-free return, typically the T-bill interest rate.

For example, to hedge a stock portfolio one might short the S&P futures, in effect going short the S&P 500 index basket of stocks. The return on this position would then be the risk-free return plus the performance of the portfolio relative to the S&P 500 index.

The philosopher Georges Santayana wrote: “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” There is a corollary in the financial markets - those who do remember the past are condemned to frustration and underperformance in manias, like the bubble in which we find ourselves today.

Nassim Taleb’s book “Fooled By Randomness” describes this phenomenon, where the short-term success enjoyed by the novices fools them in to believing that they know what they are doing, when in fact they are so incompetent that they cannot recognize their own incompetence.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Sales of existing homes rose unexpectedly in March by 0.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.92 million, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. After five months of declines, existing home sales have risen two months in row, prompting David Lereah, chief economist for the realtors, to say, “This is additional evidence that we’re experiencing a soft landing.” Economists expected sales to fall to a 6.70 million pace in March. The number of homes for sale rose 7% to a record 3.194 million, representing a 5.5-month supply at the March sales pace, the largest supply since July 1998. Median prices are up 7.4% in the past 12 months to $218,000, the smallest price gain since January 2004.

UBS decides the landing is going to be hard: “Of late, however, the more rapid rate of decline in demand — down 21% in eight months — has led us to rethink our thesis for the near term,” she said. “Given tough comparisons and a proliferation in for sale listings in some of the hotter markets, demand has fallen more quickly than we expected.” Marketwatch

“ForeclosureS.com, a California based real estate investment advisory firm and nationwide publisher of foreclosure property listings, reported today that foreclosure activity in the first quarter of 2006 increased significantly from the fourth quarter of 2005 in several western and southwestern housing markets.

“The biggest increases were in major urban centers around the West,” said ForeclosureS.com president Alexis McGee. “For example, Los Angeles County recorded 6,314 pre-foreclosure filings and foreclosures through March, up from 4,911 in Q4 of 2005, while in San Diego the numbers jumped from 1,565 in Q4 of 2005 to 2,241 in Q1 of 2006.” Business Wire

“Investors who sought quick profits buying and selling real estate in the Washington region are in full retreat, dampening demand for homes, most notably for condos. What is becoming apparent, market watchers say, is how big a part speculators played in the region’s real estate boom of the past few years. Not just condominiums, but also townhouses and single-family houses, were snapped up by investors using no-money-down financing and non-traditional loans. They helped send prices soaring at unprecedented rates. And now many are trying to sell, or rent at a loss. Some may eventually dump properties at low prices to get rid of them. That could weigh down values for everyone.” Washington Post

Irvine, Calif. – April 25, 2006 – RealtyTrac™ (www.realtytrac.com), the leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, today released its 2006 Q1 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which showed that 323,102 properties nationwide entered some stage of foreclosure in the first quarter of 2006, a 38 percent increase from the previous quarter and a 72 percent year-over-year increase from the first quarter of 2005. The nation’s quarterly foreclosure rate of one new foreclosure for every 358 U.S. households was higher than in any quarter of last year. RealtyTrac