Steve Roach of Morgan Stanley writes “For me, the highlight of the annual China Development Forum always comes at the end of the gathering — the traditional meeting with the Premier. Sometimes this exchange is tightly scripted, but at other times, it offers considerable food for thought. This was one of the latter examples. In a free-wheeling response to intense questioning from the assembled group of outside experts, Premier Wen Jiabao left little doubt of the strong resolve of the Chinese leadership in facing a series of daunting challenges in the years ahead.”

Can you imagine George Bush being capable of conducting an unrehearsed and freewheeling discussion session with a group of financiers and economists?

From Stuff Ben Wrote by Ben Stein

But for the youngest members of the party, the option of saving like madmen is still open. Only it’s not an option: it’s mandatory. In index funds, annuities, mutual funds, real estate, bonds - but best, in all of these things at once.

Sometimes, a simple actionable item is all it takes to get moving on a big, scary, overwhelming, important task. Thanks, Ben, for sharing that.

OK this isn’t financial. This is scary. It turns out that the answer to life, the universe, and everything may in fact be 42.

Seed

The following from Jon Lansner’s blog at the Orange County Register, giving a bubble update:

“Mid-March: Prices +9.6%; volume -21.6%

Forget the first two months of the year. They’re wacky. It’s now prime shopping season. And the first peek — fresh stats from DataQuick — shows if the current trends hold, March will be be the fifth straight month of year-over-year sales declines and the worst one-year drop since October 2004. For 22 business days ended March 15:

*-Homes, condos and apartment conversions”

This clearly shows how the builders - “New residences” line - are the first to adjust prices in the downturn. As professionals, they are saying “Feet, don’t fail me now” while the amateurs are clinging to their high prices - and not selling. See Real Estate Prices for the original discussion of this tendency.

New home sales were down substantially this morning. If this is anything other than a blip, then it is very likely that we are going onto recession. This blog shows the history. Judge for yourself.