financial reality

Separating fact from fiction in finance and economics


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  • InLibrisLibertas
    Location : Mill Valley, California, United States

    I'm an independent investor. I make my living from the returns on my investments. I work at home, in the northern part of the San Francisco Bay area, or on my boat which I keep in the British Virgin Islands. I spent most of my career as an executive in high-tech, although I also spent time in banking. Down to one kid in university now!

Some faces of negative savings

January 27th, 2006 by InLibrisLibertas

Piggy banks endangered: Few saving for retirement

Posted in Retirement, Saving & Investment | No Comments »

More on Bifurcation

January 27th, 2006 by InLibrisLibertas

In a WSJ article titled “We Must Change Policy Direction”, ex-Treasury Secretary (and Wall Street Master of the Universe) Robert Rubin argues that “the longer-term underpinnings of our economy are unsound at a time of historic competitive change in the global economy.”

He focuses in particular on the growing bifurcation between the rich and the poor that I have previously discussed;

“The seeming inertial tendency of our economy toward less and less broad-based participation is startling and too little discussed. Median real wages, household incomes and family incomes have increased relatively little over the last 30 years, except during the last five years of the ’90s. Thus, a study showed that in 1979 it took 44 people with average earnings in the bottom half of the population to equal each person in the top 0.1 of 1%, while in 2001, the last year in that study, that number was 160. Our economy is not working for too many of our people, and that is a problem for all of us.”

“Our strategy should reaffirm market-based economics as the most effective organizing principle for economic activity, while recognizing the critical role of government in providing the many requisites for economic success that markets, by their very nature, will not provide.”

“Broad participation in economic well-being and growth is critical, both as a fundamental value and to realize our economic potential. Enabling all citizens to obtain adequate housing, nutrition, education, health care and much else will best promote productivity. Broad-based participation is also the best antidote to protectionism, and to pressures for undue restrictions on our economic flexibility and immigration. For these same reasons, measures to increase security for the growing number of people dislocated in our rapidly changing economy may well be wise economically. This can be done without creating the rigidities and excessive social benefits that have led to chronically slow growth and high unemployment in Continental Europe.”

Posted in Income & Consumption | No Comments »

Support our troops

January 25th, 2006 by InLibrisLibertas

“WASHINGTON (AP) - Most military reservists who left their civilian jobs to fight in Iraq or Afghanistan made more money there than in their regular jobs, according to a study that contradicts the notion that citizen soldiers lose money when they go to war.”

Sacramento Bee

Posted in Income & Consumption | No Comments »

Maybe it really is over

January 25th, 2006 by InLibrisLibertas

“WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Sales of existing homes in the United States fell 5.7% in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.60 million, the lowest in nearly two years, the National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday. Sales were much weaker than the 6.89 million expected by economists. Sales have fallen three months in a row. “Speculators are pulling out,” said David Lereah, chief economist for the realtor group. Inventories of unsold homes fell 4.4% to 2.80 million in December, a 5.1-month supply.”

Posted in Real Estate | No Comments »

You want to be an “investor?”

January 24th, 2006 by InLibrisLibertas
Some of the big differences between the housing market and the stock market are:- Leverage. The housing market uses substantial leverage, the stock market does not. The credit required to support that leverage may not always be readily available.
- Liquidity. In general, the stock market remains liquid. Illiquidity (aka “crash”) is a very rare event. In housing, illiquidity is routine. It may take a huge price reduction to move a house quickly when inventories are high.
- Carry. Stocks generally have a low carry, other than cost of money there’s nothing. Houses are high maintenance, apart from the cost of money they must be insured and kept in good repair and may be heavily taxed. Some stocks pay dividends, some houses have rental income which in both cases mitigates the carry. Single family housing at current prices general still have a carry cost even with rentals, as do stocks because most dividends are low.
- Transaction costs. With 6% commissions to the MLS cartel, to say nothing of title insurance, appraisal fees, transfer taxes, etc., housing has huge transaction costs. This discourages trading, of course, as does the often-poor liquidity.
- Security of title. Housing may be seized at any time by the local authority, on a whim. While compensation is required to be paid, it is generally inadequate. Stocks can only be seized through legal process.

And folks still want to speculate in the housing market?

Posted in Real Estate, Stocks | No Comments »

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