financial reality

Separating fact from fiction in finance and economics


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  • InLibrisLibertas
    Location : Mill Valley, California, United States

    I'm an independent investor. I make my living from the returns on my investments. I work at home, in the northern part of the San Francisco Bay area, or on my boat which I keep in the British Virgin Islands. I spent most of my career as an executive in high-tech, although I also spent time in banking. Down to one kid in university now!

Deflation or Inflation

August 31st, 2004 by independence


Source:Comstock Funds

Borrowed the above from the boys at Comstock. Look around, look at the chart. You figure it out.

Posted in Inflation & The Dollar | No Comments »

Classic End of Month Window Dressing

August 31st, 2004 by independence

Today is the last day of August and a jam job is in progress. You can’t tell who, but this occurs regularly at month-end and is generally believed to be the result of the funds jamming the stocks they own, to make themselves look as good as possible.

No it isn’t legal, but they probably figure they won’t get caught or they simply don’t care.

Posted in Rogues and Rascals, Stocks | No Comments »

The Broken Window Fallacy

August 30th, 2004 by independence

After Hurricane Charley, and doubtless after Hurricane Frances should it prove destructive, we will be told in the press about the economic benefits of the damage, in that spending on repairs is considered an economic stimulus.

This is, of course, nonsense - the destruction creates great economic loss for society as a whole, although of course the repair industry benefits. This chestnut continues to reappear time after time, despite its continued rebuttal. The most famous essay on this subject is by Frederic Bastiat, dating from 1850. Enjoy. That Which is Seen, and That Which is Not Seen

Posted in Economics, The Economy | No Comments »

Employment Roulette

August 30th, 2004 by independence

The market declined today on extremely light volume. The combined influence of the Republican convention, it being the last weekof summer vacations before Labor Day, and the prospect of the monthly employment numbers on Friday, has made the markets very quiet. Friday’s numbers are being looked to by the bulls to confirm that the “soft spot” is over, and of course vice-versa by the bears. Both sides have taken their positions; the chips are down. All eyes are on the croupier as the wheel is spun. As statistician Jim Willie says “However, the reality is that within the US Economy, jobs are produced by statistical models far more than from employers. Over 1.1 million new jobs show up on the Birth-Death model from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which accounts for over 75% of claimed job growth. On the news, one can see proud claims of job growth, when they are mere estimates from questionable sources. …. The B-D model probably is worthless; it is surely indefensible.”

Of course this makes it very hard to predict what Friday’s number will be. There is ample opportunity for the administration to massage the numbers. Doubtless they will make the most of it, so I would expect a relatively strong number courtesy of the Birth-Death model. This will satisfy everyone and no-one, of course.

Posted in Employment, Government, Stocks | No Comments »

Tax Lien Certificates

August 29th, 2004 by independence

I’ve been asked if tax lien certificates, which carry quite high interest rates, sometimes as high as 30%, are a good investment.

Tax lien certificates represent the last attempt by the ‘crats to collect the taxes due on a piece of property. When all else fails, the ‘crats encumber the property with a lien in the amount of the unpaid taxes. They then sell the lien and the right to collect the unpaid taxes to a third party investor. This means the ‘crats get at least some money and no further hassle trying to collect. Basically the third party investor is now a collection agency. Most counties in the US offer them, usually by auction, at which you have to be physically present. Anyone who wants to buy the property from the owner must clear the tax lien by paying off the certificate plus accrued interest at whatever rate was set. Of course, you have to wonder why the owner didn’t pay the taxes or sell the property. These rates are set high so the certificates look good, but actually collecting it is another matter. If no-one buys the property (and the owner doesn’t pay up), after a set period (like three years) you may own the property after payment of a title fee. If the owner is in bankruptcy then you are probably out of luck as the IRS and other creditors take priority over property tax liens. Like any other credit, you should research and inspect the property before you invest. These issues generally limit these deals to folks who are knowledgeable and located not too far from the property. You can be sure that any good deals will be snapped up by the local insiders and out-of-town folks will only get junk.

So the short answer is, probably not, unless you are well-connected local who has done his/her homework and knows exactly what the deal is with a particular piece of property. If that’s you, you didn’t need to read this anyway.

Posted in Asset Classes, Learn more..., Real Estate | No Comments »

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