We watched an episode of Dr Who on BBC America (originally aired in April 2007, apparently) that is set in 1930 in Hooverville in New York’s Central Park. Yes, I know that there wasn’t a Hooverville in New York until 1931 - wikipedia.

Interesting setting - depression era New York brought to you by those clever chaps that do Dr. Who. Kind of spooky, actually.

If, as, and when the current credit bubble goes down, and there is a severe recession or depression, how much of the 1930s will be reprized? Will men gather in the cities and live in make-shift housing in Central Park, St Louis, Seattle? Obamaville? Clintontown?

I read Nassim Taleb’s new book, The Black Swan, as did John Mauldin. In his comments this week, Mauldin talks about predictions, understanding their limitations.

By definition, we cannot know the future. Yet we go through the exercise. And even though we should know that we will probably be wrong, there is a value on the process if done with the proper amount of cautious optimism tempered by reality.

I think about the future not just to look for opportunities to invest but primarily as a thought process to assess wherein lies the risk. The first task of an investor is to manage risk and only secondarily to seek attractive returns. We make predictions about the future so as to think about risk and to seek places for opportunity. And then every so often, we re-assess our predictions in the light of new information and adjust our risk controls and objectives.

For many of us, making predictions, having a scenario, is about the process rather than the product. I’m not very good at big concept, abstract thinking. I do much better with throwing out a trial prediction, then determining if it is “good enough” by asking questions. That doesn’t mean the prediction is right, just that I don’t see anything wrong with it on the basis of the information available. Hopefully, I will have considered a broad spectrum of questions and risks, so even if a black swan arrives, it isn’t catastrophic.

Golden Gate Transit - bus schedules
routes 4
http://goldengatetransit.org/schedules/pages/Bus-Schedules.php
map
http://goldengatetransit.org/services/documents/Map_Marin.pdf

Tiburon ferry - blue & gold
$9 one way
http://www.blueandgoldfleet.com/Ferry/Tiburon/index.cfm

Mill Valley Market
http://www.millvalleymarket.com/

Curves
Mill Valley, CA Alto Center, 721 A East Blithedale
(415) 383-2376

Sweetwater Saloon
http://sweetwatersaloon.com/

volunteering
http://www.marin.org/comres/volunteering.cfm

CineArts at Sequoia
25 Throckmorton Avenue
415.388.4862
http://www.mrmovietimes.com/movie-theaters/CineArts-at-Sequoia.html

Mountain Play
http://www.mountainplay.org/
HAIR 2007 Show dates are 5/20, 5/27, 6/3,6/9,6/10 and 6/17.

Spaulding Wooden Boat Center
Sausalito
http://www.spauldingcenter.org/

Natural Capital Institute
http://www.naturalcapital.org/wisercommons.htm
http://www.naturalcapital.org/wiserbusiness.htm

I’m trying to understand how the American mortgage and credit bubble could unwind. Here is some perspective on the Asian participation in the run-up and coming down-turn. And there is that “victim” word again, along with “forced”…

The robbery of the century
By Chan Akya

The subprime banana skin has thus claimed a number of victims, including Asian central banks that are forced to hold billions in US dollar securities because of their currency manipulation that pushes up reserves. It almost seems poetic justice that the manipulators are given losses by the very people they think they are helping, namely over-consuming Americans.

I believe that forced liquidation of many portfolios in Asia will create further losses, but American borrowers will emerge in essence unscathed from all this. …

This is one of the greatest robberies of our time, and it will go unreported in essence. Hard-working Asian savers will see their central banks post billions of dollars in losses on the US mortgage crisis in the next few years, but nothing can be done about it given the general lack of accountability across Asia. …

With more than $3 trillion in such reserves being invested (wasted) on low-return US and European securities just across Asia, perhaps it is time for citizens to raise the question with their central banks: Just whom are you working for, your citizens or American homeowners?

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IG14Dj01.html

The assertion that “American borrowers will emerge in essence unscathed” is overly optimistic. What they will get is perhaps not what they “deserve” but if the world economy is seriously damaged, everyone will be the worse for it. I agree that most folks won’t make the cause-effect connection, but that isn’t new news.